Talk to Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment like its author wrote you back.
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What it argues
Bias gets most of the attention in discussions of judgment error. Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein's central claim in Noise is that a different and equally important source of error has been largely overlooked: noise, which is the variability in judgments that should be identical. Two doctors seeing the same X-ray give different diagnoses. Two judges given identical cases hand down sentences that differ by years. Two underwriters assessing identical insurance applications price them differently. Wherever professional judgment is involved, noise is present — and usually at levels that would be shocking if anyone measured them.
The book distinguishes several types of noise. Level noise is the variation between individuals in their average judgments — one judge is consistently harsher than another. Occasion noise is variation within the same individual across time — the same judge is harsher before lunch than after, harsher on cold days. Pattern noise is variation in how different people respond to the same specific case, independent of their average level. All three contribute to the total noise in a system.
What it gets right
- 1.
Noise — unwanted variability in judgments that should be identical — is a major and underappreciated source of error in professional judgment across all domains.
- 2.
The three types of noise: level noise (consistent differences between judges), occasion noise (within-person variability over time and context), and pattern noise (idiosyncratic interaction of judge and case).
- 3.
Bias and noise are different problems. Bias is systematic directional error; noise is random scatter. Reducing one does not automatically reduce the other.
What it covers
Who wrote it
Daniel Kahneman is Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus at Princeton University and winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics. His book Thinking, Fast and Slow is one of the most widely read works in behavioral science. Olivier Sibony is a professor at HEC Paris and a former senior partner at McKinsey, where he advised on strategy and decision-making. Cass R. Sunstein is Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School and was administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs under President Obama. He co-authored Nudge with Richard Thaler.
