100 to 1 in the Stock Market by Thomas Phelps
100 to 1 in the Stock Market by Thomas Phelps

Economics · 1972

100 to 1 in the Stock Market review

by Thomas Phelps

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The verdict

100 to 1 in the Stock Market, published in 1972 by Thomas Phelps, is a study of the conditions under which stocks return one hundred times an investor's original investment — and an argument that such stocks are more common and more identifiable in advance than most investors believe.

Best for curious readers in the genre. Reading time: 4h 15m.

100 to 1 in the Stock Market by Thomas Phelps
100 to 1 in the Stock Market by Thomas Phelps

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What it argues

100 to 1 in the Stock Market, published in 1972 by Thomas Phelps, is a study of the conditions under which stocks return one hundred times an investor's original investment — and an argument that such stocks are more common and more identifiable in advance than most investors believe. Phelps spent his career as a broker and portfolio manager, and the book draws on his decades of observation of which companies produced extreme long-term returns and what they had in common.

Phelps's central argument is deceptively simple: the problem most investors face is not finding great companies — it's holding them long enough to realize their full potential. The investor who bought Xerox in the 1950s, Polaroid in the 1960s, or Walmart in the 1970s had many opportunities to sell at a good profit before the stock became a 100-bagger. Almost every great long-term investment goes through periods that justify selling — a poor quarter, a management change, a scary macro environment — and the investor who sells at any of those moments misses the compounding that follows.

What it gets right

  1. 1.

    100-to-1 returns (100 baggers) are rarer than average stocks but more common than most investors assume. Phelps documented dozens of them in the postwar American market.

  2. 2.

    The hardest part of achieving a 100-bagger is not identifying it early — it's holding through the many plausible reasons to sell that appear long before the full return is realized.

  3. 3.

    Businesses capable of 100-to-1 returns share common traits: high reinvestment rates, durable competitive advantages, and management that prioritizes long-term capital allocation over near-term earnings per share.

What it covers

Who wrote it

Thomas Phelps spent more than four decades as a financial journalist, broker, and investment advisor. He worked at Barron's magazine and later managed client portfolios, developing through practice and observation the framework he describes in 100 to 1 in the Stock Market. Published in 1972 and long out of print, the book was rediscovered by a generation of long-term investors and directly influenced Chris Mayer's 100 Baggers (2018), which updated and extended Phelps's research into the modern market. Phelps wrote no other books of comparable influence.

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