The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon
The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon

Economics · 2016

The Rise and Fall of American Growth review

by Robert J. Gordon

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The verdict

Robert Gordon's argument is one of the most carefully constructed and most contested in recent economics: that the period from 1870 to 1970 was a singular century of transformative invention, and that we have been living with the deceleration ever since.

Best for curious readers in the genre. Reading time: 15h 30m.

The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon
The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon

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What it argues

Robert Gordon's argument is one of the most carefully constructed and most contested in recent economics: that the period from 1870 to 1970 was a singular century of transformative invention, and that we have been living with the deceleration ever since. The innovations of that century — indoor plumbing, electricity, the internal combustion engine, antibiotics, telecommunications — fundamentally changed what daily life was like for ordinary Americans. The productivity gains from those inventions were massive and one-time, not repeatable. Gordon argues that digital technology, for all its genuine achievements, has produced a narrower improvement in human life than the great inventions it followed.

The first two-thirds of the book is essentially a rich social and economic history of American life from the Civil War to the 1970s. Gordon documents in granular detail what it meant to live before electricity, before running water, before antibiotics, before refrigeration. A woman doing laundry in 1870 spent roughly eight hours on the task; by 1950, an electric washer reduced that to an hour. The gain was transformative in a way that the shift from a smartphone to a better smartphone simply isn't. Gordon accumulates dozens of such comparisons across every domain of life — health, transportation, communication, food, housing — to build his case that the century 1870–1970 was genuinely unprecedented in human history.

What it gets right

  1. 1.

    The hundred years from 1870 to 1970 were economically unprecedented: the cluster of inventions in that period — electricity, internal combustion, indoor plumbing, antibiotics — transformed daily life in ways no subsequent technology has matched.

  2. 2.

    The shift from hand-powered to electric household tools is Gordon's central example of transformative gain: what once took eight hours (laundry, food preparation) took one. Subsequent gadget improvements operate on a much smaller baseline.

  3. 3.

    Digital technology's productivity gains have been real but concentrated: improvements in entertainment, communication, and information access, rather than in the harder physical conditions of life that the great inventions addressed.

What it covers

Who wrote it

Robert J. Gordon is an economist and professor at Northwestern University, where he has taught since 1973. He is one of the world's leading experts on productivity, economic growth, and the relationship between innovation and living standards. His academic work on the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1990s laid the groundwork for The Rise and Fall of American Growth. He has also written extensively on inflation, the Phillips curve, and macroeconomic measurement. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

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