Summary
The New Leadership Literacies is Bob Johansen's forecast of the skills leaders will need for a world that is more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous than the one most leadership frameworks were designed for. Johansen, a distinguished fellow at the Institute for the Future with decades of experience in technology forecasting, argues that the traditional leadership toolkit — structured planning, hierarchical authority, linear communication — is inadequate for what he projects as the conditions of the next decade. The book introduces five new literacies that he believes leaders must develop to be effective in this environment.
The five literacies are: future-back thinking (working from a long-horizon view of the future toward present decisions, rather than only forward from current reality); voluntary fear engagement (deliberately practicing discomfort to build resilience before it is forced on you); shape-shifting organizational structures (leading organizations that can reconfigure themselves fluidly rather than defending fixed structures); commons creation (building shared resources and mutual benefit rather than competing purely for individual or organizational advantage); and smart machine partnering (developing a productive working relationship with artificial intelligence and automation rather than simply being threatened by it).
Johansen grounds each literacy in forecasts from the Institute for the Future and illustrates them with examples from organizations and leaders navigating early versions of these challenges. The tone is anticipatory rather than urgent — Johansen is a forecaster, not an alarmist, and he is careful to distinguish genuine signals from noise. The book's most useful contribution is probably the vocabulary it provides for trends that many leaders can sense but haven't named clearly.
The book is most valuable for executives and strategists thinking in a five-to-ten-year horizon, and somewhat less useful for managers focused on near-term operational challenges. Some of the forecasts made in 2017 around smart machines read as understated given subsequent AI developments, but the framing around how leaders should relate to those changes — with curiosity and partnership rather than fear — has held up well.
Key takeaways
- 1.
Future-back thinking starts from a long-horizon view of where things are going and works backward to present decisions, rather than extrapolating forward from where you are now.
- 2.
Voluntary fear engagement means deliberately practicing with discomfort, uncertainty, and failure in low-stakes contexts so that you build resilience before high-stakes crises arrive.
- 3.
Organizations that can shape-shift — reconfiguring their structures and resources fluidly — will outperform those that defend fixed organizational forms as environments change.
- 4.
Commons creation reframes leadership from competition for individual resources to building shared resources and mutual benefit across organizational boundaries.
- 5.
Smart machine partnering requires leaders to develop a working relationship with AI and automation that leverages what machines do well while preserving what humans contribute distinctively.
- 6.
VUCA — volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity — is not a temporary condition to manage through. It is the permanent operating environment for which leadership must be redesigned.
- 7.
Traditional strategic planning assumptions (stable environments, predictable causation, linear execution) are increasingly counterproductive in environments that behave more like complex adaptive systems.
- 8.
The leaders most likely to thrive are those who can hold strong views lightly — committing to a direction while remaining genuinely open to updating as signals emerge.
Discussion questions
Use these on your own, with a book club, or as chat starters in Superbook.
- 1.
Johansen argues that the traditional planning mindset is increasingly counterproductive. Where in your organization do you see this tension most clearly?
- 2.
What does future-back thinking look like in practice for a decision you're currently facing? What ten-year view would change the way you're approaching it?
- 3.
What would voluntary fear engagement look like for you specifically? What discomfort are you currently avoiding that you should be practicing with?
- 4.
Which of the five literacies feels most foreign or underdeveloped in your own leadership? What would building it require?
- 5.
Johansen's forecasts about AI were made in 2017 and are already partially outdated. How does reading a forecast that time has tested change how you engage with the rest of his predictions?
- 6.
What does shape-shifting actually mean for an organization you know well? What would have to change structurally for that to be possible?
- 7.
Where in your field or industry do you see commons-creation dynamics emerging? Where do you see them being resisted?
- 8.
How is your organization currently relating to AI and automation — as a threat, a tool, or a partner? What would the partnership framing actually require?
- 9.
Johansen recommends holding strong views lightly. Can you think of a current view you hold strongly? What evidence would actually change it?
- 10.
What does VUCA mean in your daily work? Which of the four dimensions — volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity — is most disruptive for you right now?
- 11.
The book was published in 2017. Which predictions feel most prescient? Which feel most dated or wrong?
Themes
Frequently asked questions
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Who should read The New Leadership Literacies?
Executives, senior leaders, and strategists thinking about five-to-ten-year horizons. Also useful for leadership development professionals building curricula for uncertain environments. Less immediately useful for operational managers focused on near-term execution.
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Is The New Leadership Literacies still relevant in 2026?
Yes, though some specific forecasts around AI have moved faster than Johansen anticipated. The five literacies framework and the VUCA framing remain useful, and Johansen's advice on how leaders should relate to technological change — with curiosity and partnership — has held up well.
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What is future-back thinking?
Starting from a ten-year view of where your industry, technology, or society is heading and working backward to ask what decisions you should be making now. The alternative — extrapolating forward from current conditions — tends to anchor planning too heavily on present assumptions that may not hold.
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How does this book relate to Johansen's other work?
The New Leadership Literacies builds on Leaders Make the Future, which introduced the VUCA framework and the associated leader capabilities. The newer book extends that analysis with five specific new literacies responsive to conditions that had intensified between the two books.
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How long does it take to read The New Leadership Literacies?
Around four hours at average reading pace. Each literacy gets its own section with examples and reflective questions, making it easy to read in stages or return to the literacies most relevant to your current situation.
